A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT.
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Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected in multiple rounds on Saturday.
Here is the latest forecast and timing of the storms data:
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible during the day on Saturday into Saturday night. A potent surface area of low pressure will track by to the northwest and eventually north of the Tri-States through Sunday this weekend.
On Saturday, we will reside in the warm sector of the system with warm temperatures and ample moisture.
A cold front will approach the area from the west Saturday evening, which will provide the greatest chance of severe weather.
The best dynamics will be later Saturday afternoon into the first half of Saturday evening as the cold front moves in much closer. The cold front will be through sometime late Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Sunday could be stormy in the early morning followed by storm chances gradually winding down through the late morning hours with a few remaining leftover rain showers possible maybe on Sunday afternoon but we should be generally dry by then.
All severe weather threats will be possible with the threats for damaging winds and large hail the most likely impacts. The storms later in the day and through the evening will have the better chance of including tornadoes with any storms that reach severe levels.
WHEN: 2 general periods of strong to severe storm threats are expected so there will be two peak times of expected severe weather threat:
One from late Saturday morning into early afternoon.
A short-lived lull in activity of some sort appears plausible for a time mid afternoon Saturday afternoon.
Then additional storms will develop and fire later Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening.
Also possible will be a 3rd time frame for strong to severe storms late Saturday night into very early Sunday morning right along the cold front itself.
Next week more severe weather threats are expected sometime by late Monday night / Tuesday / Tuesday night.
Heavy rainfall at times this weekend and again next week here in the Tri-States and north of us will impact river flooding moving forward. This situation will need monitoring in the week ahead.
The StormTrak weather team will update you with additional information as we move along through this weekend. Please be advised this will be a fluid situation and so please stay tuned to the latest forecast data and bulletins as they unfold this weekend on all of our various WGEM media platforms.